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Polar Motion Monitor

Eight Charts Which Prove That
Chandler's Wobble Causes Earthquakes,
Volcanism, El Nino, and Global Warming

by Michael Wells Mandeville

These eight graphs directly correlate and demonstrate that most major tectonic activity, including earthquakes, volcanism, El Nino, and global warming phenomenon are caused by the changing location of the poles as the Earth wobbles back and forth slightly in what is called Chandler's Wobble. The   name for these correlations is called vortex tectonics.

  The exact location of the North and South Poles of the Earth's spin axis are constantly changing while the  Earth's crust wobbles slightly around and over the poles in the 14 month and 6.5 year cycles of Chandler's Wobble. The eigth graphs in this story board demonstrate that peaks of seismic and volcanic activity come and go in accordance with these rhythms of Chandler's Wobble to produce the El Nino syndrome. The graphs also prove that the total amount of this activity has progressively increased during the last 50 years while the center of Chandler's Wobble has slowly drifted towards the Great Lakes. It is highly likely that this increase in global volcanism is the cause of global warming.

1. The Anomalous Forty+ Year Acceleration of Earthquake & Volcanic Activity

We begin with two graphs which directly and elegantly confirm the validity of Edgar Cayce's remarkable 1930's predictions that long range geological changes would occur after 1958 and begin to accelerate in 1998. In an effort to prove or disprove certain comments and predictions made during the 1930’s by a well known psychic, Edgar Cayce, Mandeville undertook a study of the Earth’s patterns of tectonic activity during the 20^th century. Since the only data which permitted an examination of the behavior of the entire Earth were the records of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, these records were compiled by the author into databases from which two primary summary charts, "Chart 101 Worldwide Trend In Seismic Activity" and "Chart 102 Worldwide Trend In Volcanism" were prepared. Both charts show a dramatic major increase in such activity in a steady progressive upward trend over a period of at least forty years. The increase in earthquake and volcanic activity easily seems to be at least fourfold.

Chart 101: Worldwide Trend In Seismic Activity

This chart was carefully constructed to provide a consistent data series since 1973 which is statistically valid. It clearly reveals that worldwide seismic activity, defined in this chart as the number of earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 and over, has increased by a fourfold factor.

Chart 102 – Worldwide Trend In Volcanic Activity

As with Chart 101, this Chart of world volcanism for the past 125 years was carefully constructed to provide a consistent data series which is statistically valid. Despite biasing the numbers to diminish the likelihood of seeing a trend, Chart 102 clearly reveals that worldwide volcanic activity   has increased by a fourfold factor. Since some of the world's most active volcanic zones were excluded from the sample (generally because they are too remote and were not monitored well for most of the century), this graph likely understates the increase in volcanic activity.

Since 1992, which  is the cut-off year for this chart,  volcanic activity in the volcanoes of this sample has increased to over 15,000 activity days per year and seems to have reached a peak in 1998, a year which Cayce had mentioned some 60 years before as a year in which global activity of the Earth could be seen to have accelerated.

2. The Amazing Correlations Of The Position and Motions Of The Pole With Volcanic and Earthquake Activity.

Cayce claimed in the early 1930's  that "cosmic forces" in the solar sysem created earthquake and volcanic activity.  After surveying the geophysics of what might be involved, Mandeville concluded that the likely suspects were the Sun and the Moon since these were known to produce Chandler's Wobble.  Chandler's Wobble is a constant bobbing of the Earth as it spirals around in a small circle which takes 14 months to complete.  The circling motion varies between about 3 meters and 15 meters in a spiral which takes 6.5 years on the average.

To measure the effect of the Sun and the Moon on earthquake activity, Mandeville first plotted the position of the pole along the X Axis (Greenwich Meridian) as the Earth wobbled through its 6.5 year cycle. This created a 6.5 year waveform (called the X Wave in the Primary Axis Cycle).  This waveform can then be integrated with charts of annual earthquake and volcanic activity in various regions of the world. Nearly everywhere, Mandeville found obvious correlations between the position and motion of the pole with increases and decreases in earthquake and volcanic activity.   These correlations are sufficiently consistent to conclude that it is the stresses in the Earth's crust which are directly induced by Chandler’s wobble, along with additional stresses induced by the Sun and the Moon is various syzygy alignments (as found by many researchers throught the years), which create the Earth's earthquakes and volcanic activity.  This fact in principle makes possible the prediction of the most probable "windows" for major seismic activity for any area.

Chart 103: The Tempo & Rhythm In World Volcanism Compared With The X Wave 1890-1993

Quite clearly the rhythm of   worldwide volcanic activity directly reflects the tempo of the 6.5 year X Wave. This same direct correlation can be seen when just the activity in major arcs and groups of volcanoes is charted. 

Chart 104: The Tempo & Rhythm In Japanese Earthquakes Compared With The X Wave 1963-1999

The same patterns of correlation with the highs and lows of the X Wave also can be seen with earthquakes in every area and window of time.  As can be seen above, seismic activity in Japan tends to peak radically when the X Wave is low every 6.5 years. Given the immense size of the body of the Earth, the lag times which are probably at work, the great diversity in the type and layering of the outer strata of the Earth, and the constantly varying nature of the cycles of the EMS (Earth-Moon-Sun) system, one should not and indeed cannot, as one looks at the evidence, find ultra-simple correlation. But one can find, consistently, fairly clear, reasonably strong patterns of correlation which are easily seen without fancy statistical manipulation and despite any fancy statistical punditry of denial.

Chart 105: The Tempo & Rhythm In California Earthquakes Compared With The X Wave 1992

After establishing that Japan’s extremely active tectonic environment is highly reflective of the motions of the Earth’s crust as it bobs over and around the spin axis, Mandeville decided to zero into a much smaller time frame with a much small number of earthquakes to see if the same "connection" with the position and location of the pole could be found. Because of the highly accurate and complete record of earthquakes for California, Mandeville studied the outbreak of earthquakes in Southern California during 1992 (a year during which the X Wave was low).

Chart 105 zeroes in to find more exactly what the relationship is between Southern California’s quakes and the motion of the Earth’s crust over the spin axis. Normally, the Southern California area experiences some 10 to 20 events per week (magnitude 3.0 or more) but most of these are deep enough so that they are not felt on the surface and thus do not appear in the news media. In May and June of 1992, while the X Motion was at a low, Southern California began to experience swarms of up to 100 earthquakes per day.

Chart 105 shows how precisely this activity can be connected to the motion and position of the pole.   Notice that when the X Wave is at its very lowest, there is vitually no seismic activity in Southern California.  Almost all of the activity in the graph broke out when the position of the pole passed through a certain zone of numbers just prior to reaching the low point, or just after it.  When the position of the pole began to rise up back through the same zone of numbers, another outbreak occurred.  A similar chart for 1998 shows the same pattern.

Chart 106: The Tempo & Rhythm Of Volcanism In Fiji With The X Wave 1890-1993

Since the patterns of correlation were so clear for small samples of earthquakes, the author began to draw charts to compare the activity of small numbers of  volcanoes in regional zones with the X Wave.   Since the spreading rift zone of the Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc is considered by many geologists to be the most active tectonic zone on the surface of the Earth, Chart 106 was prepared to compare its activity with the X Wave.

Chart 106 may demonstrate one of the most conclusive pieces of evidence about vortex tectoncs.  The reflection of the X Wave in the peaks of volcanic activity for the vast arc of South Pacific Islands which compose the Fiji/Tonga-Papua Tectonic Arc is in nearly perfect rhythm for a substantial portion of the 20th century. This huge arc of volcanic islands begins in the Tonga Islands, passes through the Fiji Islands and continues easterly to parallel the northern coast of Australia and eventually join with Papua New Guinea on its northern side. The arc is created by the collision of the Australian Plate with the Pacific Ocean Bottom Tectonic Plate, which Australia is over-riding.

Amazingly, the frequency of peaks in volcanic activity for this great arc of volcanoes is even more obviously correlated to the X Wave than the composite of all volcanoes.   The pattern of volcanic activity is so similar to the undalations of the X Wave that it appears that sharp pulsations in volcanic activity are directly induced by the wobbling motion of the Earth's crust just as apparantly major peaks of seismic activity are created in Japan and Southern California. No simple exact relationship in timing exists as with the earthquake correlation, thus the exact connection is somewhat more obscure, but it is impossible to suppose that the similar tempo of the two phenomena are not connected. They are definitely playing the same song on the same sheet of music.

Chart 106 also shows the same trend of increase in volcanic activity as does the composite chart for world volcanism. In fact, the increase is rather dramatic, rising to a high level of activity after 1970. Since 1992, the cutoff date for Chart 106, regional volcanic activity Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc has maintained the same high level.

Has underwater volcanism increased as well? Unfortunately underwater volcanoes are not monitored in a consistent fashion, thus no data series can be created to accurately measure underwater volcanism. This is a severe scientific handicap because the increase in underwater volcanism is most likely the cause of the global warming phenomenon.

The steady increase in volcanism commenced in the later half of the 1960’s and has continued to climb since then. It is currently at levels at least twice as high as shown in Chart 102 while the Arctic summer ice melts for the first time in recorded history. Concern about global warming appeared in the 1970’s and this concern has increased, after several years of a major acceleration of volcanic actiivty, to all time record levels in 2000 and 2001 with much arm waving about the melting Arctic ice pack. Scientists debate about whether global warming is occurring and cannot explain how it is created. Climate specialists cannot find a "theory of climate" to explain or prove it. Some data seems to prove that the ground is heating up but not the atmosphere, accordingly some claim that humans are not to blame, perhaps cosmic factors.

Isn't it reasonable to suppose that these are all connected in the same truth? It is highly likely that ALL of the hot air, as it were, as well as the water, are all connected as these charts demonstrate, directly to the ground underfoot which is ceaselessly moving at a more rapid rate.  Isn't it most likely that underwater volcanism and heat venting has also increased by a large amount and this increase in heat venting is causing the heating of the oceans and the various symptoms of global warming in the weather and the biosphere?

3. The Revolutionary X Wave Correlation With El Nino

To add to the complexity of the Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc, a great Pacific Ocean Rift is spreading very rapidly in the area of the South Pacific Islands of Vanuatu,  which is to the northeast of the Fiji/Tonga Islands and is somewhat north of New Zealand.  This spreading rift zone is THE most active tectonic zone on the Earth. And just a little more to the north of this area, along the Equator, the El Nino warm water syndrome forms every few years…

Since there is such a strong, close reflection of the X Wave in this  tectonic zone, how can one avoid wondering if there could be any correlation between El Nino and the motions of the Earth's crust?  Two final charts, Charts 107 and 108, demonstrate that the great rifts on the ocean bottom in the South Pacific are the birthing grounds of El Nino, and that collectively the spreading rifts and hot water plumes which rise from them in many places around the Earth must be the birthing grounds of the present regime of global warming.

Chart 107: Correlations Of Volcanic Activity With The El Nino

Chart 107 plots the El Nino years along with the active volcano days for the Vanuatu Islands, which are about as close to the great spreading rift zone in this part of the Pacific as one can get while still standing on solid ground. Once again an uncanny correlation in phasing appears. Volcanic activity increases for a couple of years, El Nino starts.  If El Nino is caused by heat released by underwater volcanoes on the Pacific Ocean bottom, exactly this sort of pattern should be observable somewhere. How convenient that the pattern of connection shows as close as you can get to the most active tectonic zone on the bottom of the Pacific Ocean in the location which is closest to where the warm water begins to accumulate along the Equator to produce El Nino.  How conveniently random!

The activity of many other volcanic groups in the Western Pacific can be plotted and compared with the El Nino years.   They all show some of the same connectivity in timing.

Chart 108: Correlations Of The X Wave With The El Nino

Since volcanic activity in the South Pacific seems correlated at least to some degree with the El Nino years, it is logical to suspect that underwater volcanism  could be the source of the increase in the temperatures of the mid Pacific which is known to cause El Nino. Unfortunately underwater volcanism is not very well monitored, especially in that part of the world. Consequently no direct evidence can be found which specifically links the heat vents in the Pacific Ocean bottom with the El Nino.

Nonetheless these nearby island volcanoes on Vanuatu and Fiji are pretty good smoking guns. The close connection in the pattern between Vanuatu’s volcanism and the El Nino years strongly implies that a direct pattern of connection between El Nino years and the X Wave of Chandler's Wobble should be seen.

Accordingly, Chart 108 was drawn up to plot the El Nino years over the X Wave.   In this chart, the full size of the wobble (the highest and lowest points on the Greenwich Meridian) can be seen for each year, as it spirals over and up and down the Greenwich Meridian.  Each El Nino year was plotted in a lighter grey.

The simplicity and clarity of the pattern which is revealed is astounding. Doubtless, the El Nino phenomenon parallels the rhythm of volcanic activity, is directly created by the 6.5 year X Wave, and it usually commences at the same cyclical moment in the repeat upswing and downswing of the X Wave. Accordingly, in principle, the El Nino onset periods are predictable simply by plotting and predicting the motions of the Earth's crust as it bobs around  to create the small 6.5 year repeating spiral in the location of spin axis which is known as Chandler's Wobble.

Though not shown here in charts, the current progressive movement of the average location of the spin axis since ~1900 appears to be causing the escalation of earthquake activity and volcanism which is creating the much discussed "global warming" phenomenon.  For unknown reasons, the spiraling motion of the Earth's crust in Chandler's Wobble is causing a steady drift of the center of the spiral in the direction of the Great Lakes.  It has moved by some 50 feet since 1900 and this drift has been assumed to be normal.  But it may not be normal.

Since about 1950, the spiraling motion of the Earth's crust  has been moving down approximately Longitude West 90 completely out of  the outer limits of its motions during 1900 and this progressive drift may be forcing the Earth into more aggressive shape-shifting in the tropical zones.   The steady increase in tropical shape-shifting may be creating the long term increase in the amount of earthquake and volcanic activity as in shown in Charts 101 and 102. 

For more information about the drift of the average location of the wobble, which seems to have accelerated in 1923, 1958, and again in 1998, see "The Wandering Path of the Poles of the Earth (1861-2001)".

In summary, then, the cosmic factors of the EMS (Earth-Moon-Sun) system are creating changes in the location and motion of the spin axis sufficiently to force a major new trend in the shape shifting of the Earth’s crust in the tropical zones.  This shape shifting is pulsed in the frequency of the 6.5 year X Wave and it has directly induced a huge increase (possibly a fourfold increase)  in the release of the Earth’s interior heat into the bottoms of the oceans during the past 50 years, most especially in the Pacific.  Accordingly, then, the X Wave is causing El Nino and the progressively accelerating drift or shift in the location of the pole is inducing the release of a steadily increasing amount of heat with each El Nino, thusly increasing the severity of each cycle while accumulating as the trend which has come to be known as global warming.

It really is that simple.   Unlike all other theories of Earth dynamics and global change, these truths are non-theoretical, are completely free of fancy mathematical sophistry, are strictly observation driven, and can always be found to be consistant with all of the data.